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1. Recent Political Events: An Overview 1
The Early Years of the Shah 1
The Shah's New Rule 3
The Revolution 5
The Provisional Government 8
The Hostage Crisis 10
Power Struggles in the Islamic Regime 12
Notes 17
2. The History of Planning in Iran 19
Introduction 19
The First Development Plan: 1949-1955 20
The Second Development Plan: 1956-1962 22
The Third Development Plan: 1963-1967 25
The Fourth Development Plan: 1968-1972 31
The Fifth Development Plan: 1973-1977 35
Notes 36
3. The Planning System 37
Introduction 37
The Planning Institution 37
The Functional Organization of the PBO 41
The Preparation of Development Plans 50
The Implementation of Development Plans 54
Conclusion 59
Notes 59
4. What Went Wrong? 61
Introduction 61
The Tehran Oil Agreements 62
The Dream of a Great Civilization 66
The Oil Resources and Their Allocation 70
The 1974/75 Budget: Planned Inflation 77
The Drive to Survive 83
Conclusion 95
Notes 97
5. Demise of the Shah and Establishment of the Islamic Regime 101
Introduction 101
Strikes and Chaos 102
The Breakdown of the System 104
The Establishment of the New Regime 106
The Search for an Islamic Economic System 110
New Efforts on Economic Planning 113
Conclusion 119
Notes 120
6. The Future of Planning in Iran 123
The Future of Planning Under the Islamic Regime 123
Economic Positions of the Opposition Groups 126
Available Tools for Economic Planning 132
Obstacles to Economic Planning 144
Conclusion 147
Notes 147
7. Conclusion: Planning and Dictatorship 149
Notes 154
Appendix: Planning Models 155
Bibliography 179
Index 185