- 作 者：PAUL R. ABRAMSON JOHN H. ALDRICH DAVID W. ROHDE
- 出 版 社：A DIVISON OF CONGRESSIONAL QUARTERLY INC
- 出版年份：2222
- ISBN：
- 标注页数：320 页
- PDF页数：335 页
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Part 1. The 1988 Presidential Election Contest 1
1. The Nomination Struggle 11
Who Ran 13
The Rules 15
The Campaigns 21
The Conventions and the Running Mates 33
Lessons of the Nomination Campaigns 36
2. The General Election Campaign 41
Candidates' Perceptions and Strategic Choices 42
From the Conventions to the Debates 44
The Debates: Lost Opportunities for Dukakis 47
The End Game: Dukakis Finds a Message 50
Did the Campaign Matter? 51
3. The Election Results 57
The Pattern of Results 60
State-by-State Results 66
Conclusion 76
Part 2. Voting Behavior in the 1988 Presidential Election 81
4. Who Voted 87
Turnout Between 1828 and 1916 87
Turnout Between 1920 and 1988 90
Turnout Among Social Groups 95
Why Has Turnout Declined? 102
Does Low Turnout Matter? 108
5. Social Forces and the Vote 121
How Social Groups Voted in 1988 122
How Social Groups Voted During the Postwar Years 131
Why the New Deal Coalition Broke Down 144
6. Issues, Candidates, and Voter Choice 153
Retrospective and Prospective Evaluations 154
The Concerns of the Electorate 156
Issue Positions and Perceptions 158
Issue Voting Criteria 163
Apparent Issue Voting in 1988 166
Conclusion 173
7. Presidential Performance and Candidate Choice 179
What Is "Retrospective" Voting? 179
Evaluations of Governmental Performance 183
Economic Evaluations and the Vote for the Incumbent 186
Other Retrospective Evaluations 191
Evaluations of the Incumbent 192
The Impact of Retrospective Evaluations 193
8. Party Loyalties, Policy, Preferences, Performance Evaluations, and the Vote 201
Party Identification: The Standard View 201
Party Identification: An Alternative View 202
Party Identification in the Electorate 203
Party Identification and the Vote 210
Policy Preferences and Performance Evaluations 212
Conclusion 221
Part 3. The 1988 Congressional Election 227
9. Candidates and Outcomes 231
Election Outcomes in 1988 232
Candidates' Resources and Election Outcomes 238
The 1988 Election: The Impact of Congress 247
The 1990 Congressional Election and Beyond 249
10. The Congressional Electorate 263
Social Forces and the Congressional Vote 263
Issues and the Congressional Vote 264
Party Identification and the Congressional Vote 267
Incumbency and the Congressional Vote 268
The Congressional Vote as a Referendum 270
Presidential Coattails and the Congressional Vote 272
Incumbency and Candidate Resources Revisited 275
Conclusion 277
Part 4. The 1988 Elections in Perspective 281
11. The 1988 Elections and the Future of American Politics 283
Divided Government 285
Continued Republican Dominance 290
A Resurgent Democratic Party 293
A New Political Party 295
A Return to Electoral Volatility 300
Suggested Readings 305
Index 311